The Presidential Horse Race Enters Its Final Stretch

By Dominick Matarese |

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 22: U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. This is the last debate between the two candidates before the November 3 election. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images) *** BESTPIX ***

With less than a week to go until election night, both incumbent President Donald Trump, and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, are leaving no shot left unfired and no stone left unturned.

Heading into election night, Joe Biden is the favorite to win both the popular vote, and the presidency. Election models from FiveThirtyEight show Biden winning 89 in 100 scenarios. State polling suggests that Biden also has a lead in many swing states that will be the deciding factor in who claims victory. President Trump is the underdog, but could still eke out a win. Many swing state polls are within 3%, a margin that could be overcome by a surprise turnout in his favor, given that this number is within the margin of error for most polls. 

Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes is one such state that could decide the election. Both Trump and Biden have focused a sizable portion of their campaign efforts on Pennsylvania. On Monday President Trump held three rallies in one day across different PA counties, and plans on doing two more rallies on Saturday. Biden has also made Pennsylvania a centerpiece of his campaign, and is the state he has held the most events in during his campaign. With a large state like PA up for grabs, it is no surprise that fracking has been a topic of debate between the two candidates, as PA has substantial fracking.

In the first debate, most of the population agreed that it was disorderly and unproductive, with most of the blame being put on President Trump. The second debate was scheduled to be conducted over video conference, due to President Trumps Covid-19 diagnosis. However he backed out of the event claiming the format would be unfair to him. The third scheduled debate was more orderly than the first.

With Covid-19 reaching record breaking numbers in the US, a large amount of voting will be conducted by mail. Between the time involved in counting, and President Trump’s efforts to halt mail in votes, many suspect that we may not know a winner on election night. Heads of both the Democrat and Republican parties have urged their supporters to remain calm on November 3rd, but it is unclear if scenarios involving a race too close to call, or a significant delay in counting votes may send the country into chaos.

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